[1] An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the South China Sea,
The Philippines, and the Philippine Sea. Subseasonal coherent tropical variability;
La Niña conditions, numerical weather forecast guidance, and above-normal sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) favor elevated rainfall. Confidence: HIGH.
[2] An increased chance for Tropical Cyclogenesis for the South China Sea,
Philippine Sea and parts of Western Pacific Ocean. Above normal SSTs and
areas of weak vertical wind shear in this region are expected to enhance the
threat of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Confidence: MODERATE. [view graph]
*Existing Active TC: Tropical Storm MINDULLE (06W) affecting the shores of
Northern Vietnam with high winds and heavy rainfall.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week Two (2) Forecast: AUG 31-SEP 06, 2010
[Tuesday to
Monday]
[1] Continuing increased chance for above-average rainfall for the South
China Sea, The Philippines, and Philippine Sea. Subseasonal coherent tropical
variability; La Niña conditions, numerical weather forecast guidance, and above-
normal SSTs favor elevated rainfall. Confidence: HIGH.
[2] Continuing increased chance for Tropical Cyclogenesis across the South
China Sea, Philippine Sea and parts of Western Pacific Ocean. Above normal
SSTs and areas of weak vertical wind shear in this region are expected to enhance
the threat of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Confidence: MODERATE. [view graph]
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the
above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100%
accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook
week.
:: Confidence Level [chance of happening]: LOW: <30% MODERATE: 30-50% HIGH: >50%
:: This outlook is issued for planners every Tuesday. ::
>> The next outlook will be issued on August 31, 2010.
Sources: NOAA Global
Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical
Computer Models.
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